It is not very often that I write about sport, but today is the day in which Scotland were dumped out of the Rugby World CUp by the hosts Japan.

First things first, Japan were excellent and fully deserved their win. No ifs, no buts, Japan were better. Full Stop. So where does this leave Scotland in the rugby world ? Well, in my humble opinion, it leave Scotland firmly rooted as a Tier Two Nation. Officially of course, they’re not, but in all other respects, they are. They are, just in the top ten of world rugby, according to the current, post Japan table. They are ninth. Tenth is Argentina. Japan are seventh. Officially, Japan are Tier Two. Notable countries just outside the top ten are Italy, Tonga, Fiji, Samoa as well as well heeled pretenders America and Canada. Georgia, Uruguay and Russia are also in the chasing pack.

Looking at the wider picture of Scottish rugby, should we be surprised that they have been well beaten by Japan ? Personally, I think not.

Scotland play in the Five / Six Nations. Between 2009 and 2019 they have played 55 games. Their record is 14 wins, two draws and a massive 38 defeats. Within a rounding error of a decimal place, that is 70% of games in the last decade lost. As an average they have finished fifth since 2009. Only twice, 2013 and 2018 have Scotland finished in the top half. Just. Third. If it were not for Italy, Scotland would have a very impressive collection of carbon based cutlery. Of course, somebody has to finish fifth. In the same way that somebody must finish first. But Scotland are supposed to be a Tier One country.

Scotland 01

My personal view is that this is not going to change. I fully expect, even now, that in the 2020 Five Nations Scotland will lose to England, wales, Ireland. They will probably be beaten by France and are 50/50 win / lose against Italy. Fifth is nailed on again for them. Their problems at international level are rooted very deeply in their domestic game. The professional era has not fared well for Scotland. Since the mid ’90’s Scotland has managed to successfully whittle down its professional club from many to two; Glasgow and Edinburgh. Which means of course they don’t have a league structure but play in something called the Celtic League; Scottish, welsh and Irish clubs. And a brace from Italy. All of this mean that Scotland only has about 80 professional players from which to pluck a Scotish national team. Glasgow has a squad of 61, minus 17 who are not Scottish means 44 players. Edinburgh, 52 players, less the non Scotish leaves 38 eligible players. A total of 82. From this Scotland finds 33 players to make a squad.

Basically, if you can wear a blue shirt and hold a rugby ball you’re probably in with a shout.

For me this is the main reason why Scotland are as poor as they are, and they are very poor. And the main reason why it is not likely to change any time soon. Scotland needs two more teams, both of which need to be reasonably successful and both of which need to have a squad which is at least 50% Scottish. They need non Scots in the squads to bring new ideas and new techniques but they need to be feeder teams for the national team. They need to start producing quality players in depth, to have two or three good players per position so there is competition between players, rather than a near 50/50 chance of being in the squad simply because of the numbers.

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An empty Murrayfield

Alas, this is not going to happen. The very reason Scotland only has two teams is because Scotland could not, financially, support more. There is only enough support in Scotland for two teams. Glasgow had an average of 7700 for the 2018 / 2019 season, Edinburgh 6800 average. By comparison, the average of the 12 clubs in the English Premiership is a shirt or two over 14000.

As ever, the future of Scottish rugby will be full of heart, determination and passion, but is likely to be light on accomplishment and success. On the bright side, the do have a 50 / 50 chance of not losing the Calcutta Cup.